Tom's Film Hub

Winners

• The Brutalist, Anora, Conclave, and Emilia Perez

The four “front-runners” solidified their status Monday morning. Each film did not miss a beat, acquiring all the nominations they were vying for, including some that were uncertain. The Brutalist ended up with 7 nominations, including all three acting categories. Anora secured 5 nominations, including supporting actor Yura Borisov, and Emilia Perez led all films with 9 nominations, spanning score, screenplay, director, and two supporting actress nominations.

Conclave ended up with 6 nominations, including both screenplay and director. Although the Globes did not nominate any of the supporting actors in the film, however, the nomination of Isabella Rossellini in supporting actress suggests it shouldn’t impact the film’s chances for Best Drama. It feels like the eventual Best Picture winner will come from these four.

• The Substance

 The body horror satire The Substance continues to exceed expectations, racking up 5 nominations. Demi Moore was expected in lead actress, but Margaret Qualley was surprisingly nominated in supporting actress, potentially throwing a wrench into the supporting race going forward. The film also became the only other film to join the big four this year with nominations in picture, director, and screenplay. For context, every Best Picture winner at the Oscars since 2010, except Coda (2021), was nominated in those three categories. If there was any doubt about The Substance’s chances in Best Picture, they should now be gone.

• A Complete Unknown

 Like Elvis (2022) and Bohemian Rhapsody (2018), A Complete Unknown looks primed to be a big Oscar contender. With three nominations, including two acting nods and Best Drama, the film is well-positioned. While it missed out on screenplay, director, and supporting actress, its inclusion in the National Board of Review and American Film Institute top tens last week cements it as having spot in Best Picture at the Oscars.

• The Apprentice

While it did not receive a Best Drama nod, today marked a big win for Ali Abbasi’s Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice. Many worried awards bodies would shy away from the film due to its subject matter, but it landed two nominations: lead actor for Sebastian Stan (who was double-nominated, also for A Different Man) and supporting actor Jeremy Strong. While its momentum remains uncertain, this could pave the way for other awards bodies to recognize it.

• A Real Pain

Searchlight’s Sundance indie A Real Pain scored a strong four nominations, including Best Comedy/Musical, Best Screenplay, Best Actor in a Comedy, and Best Supporting Actor. It’s a robust showing that puts the film firmly in the race for Best Picture.

Losers

• Sing Sing

There were concerns about whether A24’s small drama Sing Sing would be overlooked due to its lack of visibility, and those fears were realized this morning. Sing Sing ended up with just one nomination—for lead actor Colman Domingo. No Best Drama, no Original Song, no Best Screenplay, and, most shockingly, no Best Supporting Actor for Clarence Maclin. This is truly the worst-case scenario for the film. Its Best Picture hopes are in jeopardy, and any aspirations of being a strong player appear dashed.

• Dune: Part 2

In a case of “been there, done that,” the Globes did not shower Dune: Part 2 with the same love they gave Dune: Part 1 (2021). The film received only two nominations: Best Picture and Best Score. Director Denis Villeneuve was snubbed—a big setback that suggests he may again miss a Best Director nomination at the Oscars (as he did for Part 1). While Dune: Part 2 remains a likely Best Picture nominee at the Oscars, other above-the-line nominations now seem unlikely.

• Saoirse Ronan

Two months ago, there was speculation that Saoirse Ronan might join the exclusive list of actors double-nominated at the Academy Awards. Now, it seems she’ll be lucky to receive even one nomination, as she was snubbed for both Best Actress (The Outrun) and Supporting Actress (Blitz). It appears the campaigns for her films are not resonating, and Ronan’s (admittedly brief) drought at the Oscars will continue.

• Wicked

Given Wicked’s dominance in the cultural conversation over the past month, many expected it to lead in nominations. Instead, it earned a disappointing three: Best Comedy/Musical, Actress for Cynthia Erivo, and Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande. Missing out on Director or Screenplay for Jon M. Chu, Supporting Actor for Jonathan Bailey, and Score weakens its position. While Wicked may dominate the Critics’ Choice nominations later this week, its hopes of being a blockbuster, populist Best Picture contender are dimming.

• Films still hoping to be contenders

For a few films, this was the last shot at making a Best Picture run. Paramount’s Gladiator II earned only a Supporting Actor nod (plus a Box Office nod, though that doesn’t hold much weight), and Apple’s Blitz went home empty-handed. International films like The Seed of the Sacred Fig and The Room Next Door needed surprise Drama nominations to remain in the conversation but fell short.

Unsure

• Challengers

One of the biggest wild cards this season, Challengers did well with four nominations, including Best Picture in Comedy/Musical, Best Actress for Zendaya, Best Score, and Best Original Song. However, its current placement outside the ten for Best Picture means this package of nominations doesn’t make a bold statement.

• Nickel Boys and September 5

No film in the past fifteen years has been nominated only for Best Drama at the Golden Globes, yet this year saw two exceptions: Nickel Boys and September 5. This anomaly likely reflects the strength of the Comedy/Musical category and the many acting nominees from non-Best Drama films. However, the lack of nominations in supporting acting, screenplay, or director categories leaves their overall awards prospects unclear.

• All We Imagine As Light

 It might seem odd not to place All We Imagine As Light in the winner’s category, given its shocking Best Director nomination for Payal Kapadia and its Best Foreign Film nod. However, because the film is ineligible for the Best International Film Oscar, as it was not submitted by its home country, India that only leaves the best director as a potential overlap with the Globes. In the modern Oscars era, it’s almost unheard of for a film to secure only a Best Director nod. The film’s failure to make Best Drama, combined with missing out on two lower-ranked nominees (Nickel Boys and September 5), raises questions about its overall strength in the awards race.