It’s officially Cannes week! For the next week and a half, some of the best filmmakers in the world will gather in France to debut their new films.
22 films will be in competition for the highest prize, the Palme d’Or. Decided by a jury of nine, it is considered by many to be the highest honor in film. For awards nerds like me, the Palme d’Or has also become a major boost to a film’s Oscar hopes — six of the last seven winners went on to score Best Picture nominations (two of them won).
In addition to the Palme, six other prizes are handed out:
- Grand Prix (runner-up),
- Jury Prize (third place),
- Best Director,
- Best Actor,
- Best Actress, and
- Best Screenplay.
For those newer to the French festival, it’s standard (though not guaranteed) that a film is only allowed to win one award.
This year’s jury will be presided over by French actress Juliette Binoche and include Halle Berry, Payal Kapadia, Alba Rohrwacher, Leïla Slimani, Dieudo Hamadi, Hong Sangsoo, Carlos Reygadas, and Jeremy Strong.
It’s almost impossible to predict what such a small (and eccentric) group will choose as the best, but with the festival starting, I’m going to try anyway.
Palme d’Or: Sound of Falling
Early buzz around the German film Sound of Falling, directed by Mascha Shilinski, is very strong. This two-and-a-half-hour intergenerational saga spans four decades, reportedly exploring memory, grief, and time through a very experimental lens. That kind of ambition is exactly what an artistic jury gravitates toward.
Grand Prix: Sentimental Value
Joachim Trier’s third time in the Cannes competition, yet he has surprisingly never won one of the top three prizes. (The Worst Person in the World won Best Actress for Renate Reinsve.) His new film, Sentimental Value, follows a fractured father-daughter relationship and he has assembled an incredible ensemble led by returning collaborator in Reinsve. Trier’s reputation continues to grow, and this could be the project that finally breaks through.
A noteworthy side bit: Sentimental Value is one of two films at Cannes this year (along with Julia Ducournau’s Alpha) set to be distributed by Neon. The last five Palme d’Or winners were distributed by Neon.
Jury Prize: Alpha
Nine filmmakers have won the Palme d’Or twice. Julia Ducournau could be the tenth, returning with her highly anticipated follow-up to Titane. Akin to her previous work Alpha reportedly mixes sci-fi and body horror while tackling themes of gender and identity. It may feel too soon for another top prize, but as Ruben Östlund proved with back-to-back Palme wins in 2017 and 2022, it’s possible. Ducournau’s visceral, bold style is tailor-made for Cannes, and if she doesn’t repeat her Palme win, she could still land the Jury Prize.
Best Director: Kelly Reichardt — The Mastermind
This is only Reichardt’s second time in competition at Cannes. The Best Director award often goes to either the “fourth-place” film, a risky directorial swing, or a beloved veteran filmmaker. Reichardt fits the latter. The Mastermind look to be another intimate, quietly powerful period piece in her signature style, and the jury could easily look to honor her.
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence — Die My Love
Director Lynne Ramsay is known for her intense, emotionally raw work (We Need to Talk About Kevin, You Were Never Really Here). Her new film, Die My Love, centers on a woman who descends into postpartum psychosis. Jennifer Lawrence stars in what sounds like a physically and emotionally demanding role. Ramsay has a track record of pushing actors to career-best performances, and now paired with a performer like Lawrence, this could be another winner.
Best Actor: Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Moura (Narcos) stars in Kleber Mendonça Filho’s historical drama The Secret Agent, playing a man on the run during Brazil’s fascist regime in 1977. The film is expected to be personal and politically charged, with Moura front and center. If it lands, Moura is an easy frontrunner to win.
Best Screenplay: Eddington
Ari Aster’s COVID-19-set Western Eddington is looking like another genre-bending, audacious piece from the American director (Hereditary, Beau Is Afraid). There is already a lot of buzz around the film, and with it cracking the competition lineup, it looks like another hit for Aster. It may be too messy or U.S.-centric for the top prize, but this category is the perfect place for Cannes to honor Aster’s singular voice.
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