Tom's Film Hub

The nominations for the 97th Academy Awards will be announced this Thursday, January 23, 2025. That means it’s time to try (and likely fail) to predict what Oscar voters are writing on their ballots.

When predicting the nominations, I rely on four key indicators, which I’ll frequently reference throughout this article:

1. Golden Globes
   While there’s no overlap between Golden Globes (GG) voters and the Academy, the Globes remain the second most-watched film award show. They help set the tone for which films and performances are considered awards season contenders. This year, their influence gets an extra boost as they’re the only televised awards before the Oscars, with the Critics Choice Awards delayed due to the fires in Los Angeles.
2. Critics Choice Awards
   Representing the collective voice of national film critics, the Critics Choice Awards (CC) announce their nominees shortly after the Golden Globes.
3. BAFTAs
   The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) is often considered the U.K. equivalent of the Oscars. Their awards system is similar, and a significant number of BAFTA voters are also members of the Academy. The BAFTA nominations were announced on January 15th.
4. Guilds
   Each Oscar category has an associated guild in Los Angeles that releases its own awards. These include major groups like the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), which hosts its own awards show, and the Producers Guild of America (PGA). Oscar nominations (with the exception of Best Picture, which is voted on by the entire Academy) are determined by individual branches of artists specializing in the relevant category. For example, actors vote for acting nominees, while cinematographers vote for cinematography nominations. The guilds and the Academy share a significant overlap in voters, making guild awards crucial indicators—particularly for predicting nominees in the technical categories.

Final note each category is ranked by how likely I think each will get nominated, with number being what I think is going to win at this moment. Lets get into it.

Best Picture

1. Emelia Perez
2. The Brutalist
3. Anora
4. Conclave
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Wicked
7. Dune Part II
8. The Substance
9. A Real Pain
10. Sing Sing

Next in Line: Nickel Boys, September 5^th, Challengers, All We Imagine as Light, I’m Still Here, Nosferatu

The top eight Best Picture contenders feel solid. All have received nominations from major bodies like the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and Producers Guild. The final two spots are where things get trickier.

“A Real Pain” takes the 9th spot, thanks to its nominations at the Golden Globes and PGA. The film also appears to be strongly positioned for Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor nominations, which should help secure its place.

The 10th and final spot is the most uncertain. “Sing Sing” was expected to be a strong Best Picture contender early on but only received a nomination at Critics Choice. That said, I still believe it will secure at least one nomination—likely Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. In an expanded Best Picture field of 10, this level of support should be enough to push it through. Additionally, “Sing Sing” has the best shot of receiving high rankings in the Academy’s ranked voting system, which could help it secure a spot in the final lineup.

Best Director

1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
2. Sean Baker – Anora
3. Jacques Audiard – Emelia Perez
4. Edward Berger – Conclave
5. Coralie Fargaet – The Substance

Next in Line: Denis Villeneuve (Dune Part II), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Ramell Ross (Nickel Boys), Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

The top three, Corbet, Baker, and Audiard, are virtually locked in, with nominations at every major precursor. Their auteur-driven visions are likely to resonate with the directors’ branch, known for favoring high-brow, distinctive filmmaking.

Edward Berger has also received nominations across all precursors, but his position feels less secure. This may be due to his surprise omission two years ago for All Quiet on the Western Front or his relatively lesser “auteur” status compared to the competition. However, Conclave remains a strong contender, and it’s hard to ignore his consistency this awards season.

The final spot for me belongs to Coralie Fargeat for The Substance. As a European auteur with a bold and unique vision, she fits the profile of past nominees in this category. Her nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTAs further solidify her position.

Among the rest, Dune Part II has not shown enough strength to get Denis Villeneuve a nomination, especially since he was snubbed for Dune Part I. Ramell Ross (Nickel Boys) and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) remain possible surprises, but the former’s weak guild showing and the latter’s lack of BAFTA recognition make it hard for me to predict them.

Best Actor

1. Adrian Brody – The Brutalist
2. Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
3. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stann – The Apprentice

Next in Line: Daniel Craig (Queer), Hugh Grant (Heretic)

The top four, Brody, Chalamet, Fiennes, and Domingo, are locked in for nominations.

The final spot is a toss-up between Daniel Craig and Sebastian Stan. Craig initially appeared secure with nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG Awards. However, his surprising BAFTA snub, especially given his usual strength with BAFTA voters, raises concerns. Additionally, Queer has struggled to gain traction in other categories, and its generally muted reception might have sunk his chances.

BAFTA instead recognized Stan, who hasn’t been nominated everywhere but did receive a Golden Globe nod and won a Globe for A Different Man. Stan has had a tremendous year, which many voters may want to reward. This momentum, combined with BAFTA’s support, makes him the pick for the final spot.

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore – The Substance
2. Mikey Madison – Anora
3. Karla Sofia Gascon – Emelia Perez
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
5. Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl

Next in Line: Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria)

It’s hard not to predict the top four—Moore, Madison, Gascón, and Erivo—all of whom have received nominations at every major precursor. While this category has seen notable snubs in recent years—Margot Robbie (Barbie), Viola Davis (The Woman King), and Lady Gaga (House of Gucci)—there’s no obvious weak link among the current top four, so I’m not predicting a surprise omission this time.

The fifth spot is more contentious, with strong cases for Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Torres won the Golden Globe for Best Drama Actress, a notable achievement since every winner in this category this century has gone on to secure an Oscar nomination. However, she lacks support from other major awards bodies and hasn’t outperformed the top four. Jean-Baptiste has been a critics’ favorite and earned a BAFTA nod, but Hard Truths is a small film with little presence in other categories.

Ultimately, I’m betting on Pamela Anderson. Actors love a good comeback story, and Anderson’s is one of the most inspirational this year, second only to Demi Moore. She has SAG and Golden Globe nominations under her belt, and a key factor working in her favor is Jamie Lee Curtis. Curtis has been tirelessly campaigning for Anderson, and as we saw with Curtis’ own Oscar success two years ago, there’s no one better at navigating awards season. Her support will be the final push Anderson needs to claim the last spot.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kiernan Culkin – A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
3. Yura Borisov – Anora
4. Guy Pierce – The Brutalist
5. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Next in Line: Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked)

Culkin is the undeniable frontrunner in this category, solidifying his position with consistent nominations and wins across major precursors. Norton sits comfortably at number two, while Borisov, though less familiar to audiences, has yet to miss a nomination anywhere. It would be surprising if the Oscars became the outlier in his case.

Pierce, despite missing a SAG nomination, remains strong due to The Brutalist’s significant presence in Best Picture contention and his pivotal role in the film. His position feels secure as the fourth nominee.

The fifth spot is the most competitive, coming down to Jeremy Strong and Clarence Maclin. Maclin made an impression with a surprise BAFTA nomination, but it might be too little too late. Strong, on the other hand, has the advantage of nominations from the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA, along with a more awards-friendly role. Actors have shown a clear admiration for Strong, and I don’t think they’ll pass up the opportunity to recognize him with his first Oscar nomination.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldana – Emelia Perez
2. Ariane Grande – Wicked
3. Isabella Rosellini – Conclave
4. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
5. Jaime Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl

Next in Line: Selena Gomez (Emelia Perez), Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Aujuane Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

This is easily the hardest category to predict, with an astounding eleven actresses receiving nominations across the four major precursors. Zoe Saldaña and Ariana Grande are the only two locks, both vying for the win.

Isabella Rossellini is in despite missing out at the SAG Awards, it seems unlikely the Academy will overlook the legendary actress, especially for a first-time nomination in a film that’s strong in Best Picture contention.

Felicity Jones has had an bizare season. She missed out at Critics Choice, despite The Brutalist being one of the most nominated films at that awards show. Additionally, neither she nor The Brutalist received SAG nominations outside of Adrian Brody, indicating a possible lack of actor support for the film. However, I still believe Jones will secure a nomination, coattailing a movie that could very well win Best Picture.

Jaime Lee Curtis rounds out the top five. As I’ve mentioned before, Curtis knows how to navigate awards season better then anyone. She has only two nominations, at BAFTA and SAG, but both of these bodies have a strong overlap with the Academy. Actors clearly admire her, and I expect them to reward her accordingly.

The toughest cut is Selena Gomez, who received BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations for her performance in a film that is debately number one right now in best picture. However, I believe the Academy will shy away from nominating a pop star for a divisive performance. It’s Ironic especially when Ariana Grande is in the top two but Grande has a stronger acting background, and her performance is much bigger and more impressive.

Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. A Real Pain
4. The Substance
5. Challengers

Next in Line: September 5, Hard Truths, All We Imagine as Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Conclave
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Emelia Perez
4. Sing Sing
5. Nickel Boys

Next in Line: Wicked, Dune Part II

Moving on to the screenplay categories, Best Original Screenplay has four clear contenders, leaving the fifth spot open. I have Challengers in that position, having received nominations at both Critics Choice and WGA. It’s easily the most well-received of the potential nominees and seems like a natural choice for one of the year’s most successful original films.

The spoiler here is September 5, which only has a Critics Choice nomination, but could be closer to a Best Picture nominee. However, I can’t overlook how it was completely shut out at the BAFTAs, which weakens its chances.

As for Best Adapted Screenplay, I believe the Oscars will follow the BAFTA list of five nominees. The inclusion of Sing Sing and Nickel Boys by a British voting body, two distinctly American films about American issues, gives me confidence that they will make the cut. The lack of a BAFTA nomination for Dune Part II makes me confident it won’t be nominated here either. While Wicked is a potential surprise, we’ve seen the Academy nominate Best Picture contenders that don’t necessarily align with typical screenplay picks (e.g., Top Gun: Maverick and 1917). But for this category, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing feel like the kinds of films that screenwriters would support.

The Rest of the Categories

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Inside Out 2
4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
5. Memoir of a Snail

Next in Line: Moana 2, Chicken for Linda

Best International Film

1. Emelia Perez
2. I’m Still Here
3. Kneecap
4. Seed of the Sacred Fig
5. The Girl with the Needle

Next in Line: Flow, Vermiglio

Best Documentary

1. No Other Land
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. Black Box Diaries
5. Porcelain War

Next in Line: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Dahomey, The Remarkble life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography:

1. The Brutalist
2. Dune Part II
3. Conclave
4. Nosferatu
5. A Complete Unknown

Next in Line: Nickel Boys, Maria, Wicked, Emelia Perez

Best Editing

1. Conclave
2. Dune Part II
3. Anora
4. Emelia Perez
5. A Complete Unknown

Next in Line: Challengers, The Brutalist, September 5

Best Production Design

1. Wicked
2. Dune Part II
3. The Brutalist
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave

Next in Line: Gladiator II, The Substance

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked
2. Nosferatu
3. Conclave
4. Dune Part II
5. Gladiator II

Next in Line: A Complete Unknown, Maria, Beetlejuice Beetlejuic

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Substance
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune Part II
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
5. Wicked

Next in Line: A Different Man, The Apprentice

Best Sound Design

1. Dune Part II
2. Wicked
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Gladiator II
5. Emelia Perez

Next in Line: Blitz, Alien: Romolus

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune Part II
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3. Better Man
4. Gladiator II
5. Alien: Romulus

Next in Line: Twisters, Deadpool and Wolverine

Best Original Score

1. The Brutalist
2. Conclave
3. Emelia Perez
4. Nosferatu
5. Challengers

Next in Line: The Wild Robot, Wicked

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal” – Emelia Perez
2. “Mi Camino” – Emelia Perez
3. “Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot
4. “The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight
5. “Sick in the Head” – Kneecap

Next in Line: “Harper and Will Go West” (Will and Harper), “Compress/Repress” (Challengers), “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late)

Nominations Totals

Emelia Perez – 11

Conclave – 10

The Brutalist – 9

Dune Part II – 8

A Complete Unknown – 7

Wicked – 7

Anora – 6

The Substance – 5

Nosferatu – 5

A Real Pain – 3

Sing Sing – 3

Gladiator II – 3

The Apprentice  – 2

The Last Showgirl – 2

Challengers – 2

The Wild Robot – 2

Kneecap – 2