The 2025 Cannes Film Festival has wrapped up. The first step of the 2025–2026 award season, many films debuted, and a few have separated themselves as potential awards players for the next Academy Awards. Here is my updated prediction with new additions and what I have dropped.
Bold for winners
Best Picture
- Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Sentimental Value
- Sinners
- One Battle After Another
- Frankenstein
- Marty Supreme
- Wicked: For Good
- Deliver Me From Nowhere
- It Was Just an Accident
- After the Hunt
Alternatives: Hamnet, Bugonia, Jay Kelly, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent
Added: Sinners, It Was Just an Accident
The Cannes results have thrown an interesting wrench into the upcoming awards race, and it’s tricky to predict how things will shake out. With the Iranian film It Was Just an Accident taking home the Palme d’Or, a new contender has entered the Best Picture conversation.
Distributor NEON now finds itself in an unprecedented position. They’ve held the U.S. rights to every Palme d’Or winner since 2019 and have successfully converted four out of those five films into Best Picture nominations. The sole exception was 2021’s Titane (dir. Julia Ducournau), which was always a long shot due to its explicit and highly experimental content. While it appears to be more of a revenge thriller than an awards-friendly drama, It Was Just an Accident does have timely political themes and ethical dilemmas that could resonate with awards voters.
This year, NEON has not just Accident in the mix, but also the runner-up Sentimental Value, which many had expected to be a strong Oscar contender before Cannes. It takes a respectable 2nd place. While a Palme win would have solidified it as NEON’s number 1 push going into the fall, it still could be as it is on the surface a more clear and accessible awards play: Joachim Trier is a previously Oscar-nominated director, and the film’s tone and themes around family are more Academy-friendly than Accident.
Complicating matters further, NEON also has The Secret Agent , a film that pulled off the rare feat of winning both Best Director (Kleber Mendonça Filho) and Best Actor (Wagner Moura) at Cannes. That makes three high-profile contenders.
NEON has never had two Best Picture nominees in the same year, nor have they ever landed a Best Picture nomination with a film that didn’t win the Palme.
So, which one to choose?
For now, I’m going to sit on the fence and include both Accident and Sentimental Value in predictions until the fall festivals reveal which title the distributor might prioritize.
But who knows, this could be the year NEON expands. Rival indie distributor A24 managed two Best Picture nominations in 2023 (Past Lives and The Zone of Interest), right after winning Best Picture the previous year with Everything Everywhere All At Once. NEON, fresh off their own Best Picture win with Anora, could do the same.
The second new addition to the Best Picture lineup is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. Initially, I was skeptical of its Oscar chances, given its vampire-horror genre leanings. But since those early predictions, the film has exploded, earning near-universal acclaim from critics and audiences alike and becoming a box office juggernaut. Following in the footsteps of Get Out and The Substance, Sinners now feels like a lock. Honestly, Best Picture might be its floor; the real question is how many more categories it can break into.
Dropped: The History of Sound, After the Hunt
The History of Sound was a placeholder to see what films were going to break out at Cannes. We have confirmation that The History of Sound will not be one of them, with its mixed critical reaction and no award wins, so it’s out.
The second cut is much harder, and I feel like I have 11 films for 10 slots. After a bit of a change of heart, I’ve landed on Hamnet. After reading some of the source material, I think the dark themes of the story might be a tough sell for a large populist awards body like the Academy. For it to achieve Best Picture, it would need to be one of the best-reviewed films and need award wins at many of the high-profile critics groups in the country. That’s going to be tough to achieve, so for now, I am going to pull back and keep it in only acting and writing categories.
Best Director
- Joachim Trier
- Ryan Coogler
- Josh Safdie
- P.T. Anderson
- Jafar Panahi
Alternatives: Guillermo Del Toro (Frankenstein), Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), John M. Chu (Wicked: For Good), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Added: Coogler, Brazil Director
I’m going all in on Sinners. I don’t see how it can’t follow a similar trajectory to Get Out, with how similar its reviews and box office performance were. Coogler is also not as much of an unknown as Peele was (as a director) back in 2017, as he has directed a Best Picture nominee before. It seems like an easy first nomination for the rising director.
The directing branch that votes for nominations is a notoriously high-art group, and they love acclaimed international filmmakers. Every Palme d’Or winner since 2018 (except Titane) has been nominated for Best Director. So I’m putting Panahi in. The Iranian filmmaker has been directing for over thirty years, and add in his prolific political activism — it is such an easy narrative to foresee.
Dropped: Guillermo Del Toro, Chloé Zhao
Zhao is being dropped for the same reasons I’m dropping it in Best Picture. Del Toro is a tougher cut, but the top 5 just feel stronger and more urgent to nominate.
Best Actor
- Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
- Jeremy Allen White (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
- Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
- Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
- Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Alternatives: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone)
Added: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
I see a promising path for recent Cannes Best Actor winner Moura, one similar to the 2019 Cannes Best Actor winner Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory). Critics’ darling in a Best International Feature nominee. Also, after the support Fernanda Torres just got this past season, I’m not doubting the Brazilian push.
I was skeptical of Leo getting another nomination in my first prediction, but we have seen a trailer since, and it looks like Anderson is putting Leo in exactly his sweet spot as a performer, a dorkish loser with great comedic material. It should be another triumphant performer, and with a Best Picture nomination, right now he is a safe bet.
Dropped: Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Paul Mescal (The History of Sound)
Highest 2 Lowest debuted to a positive reception at Cannes, and Denzel received high praise for his performance. However, the surprising omission of the film from the in-competition slate at the festival (relegated to a less historically significant prestigious out-of-competition slot), combined with a late August release, I’m concerned that there might not be a strong enough push behind it to get Denzel in. It is still Denzel, one of the most beloved actors of his generation, so he could still get in, but as we saw last year with Gladiator II, he’s not a lock just because of his name. There are safer bets on the board right now.
Mescal gets cut, similar to why it got cut for Best Picture. The reaction to the film is too mixed for distributors Mubi and Focus Features to give the film a strong enough campaign for it to receive any Oscar nominations.
Best Actress
- Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
- Amanda Seyfried (Ann Lee)
- Julia Roberts (After the Hunt)
- Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
- Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good)
Alternatives: Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Emma Stone (Bugonia), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), June Squibb (Eleanor the Great)
Added: None
Dropped: None
The only category that I have no changes in. The only Cannes premiere was Reinsve, and the reaction to the film and her performance only made me more confident in her receiving her first nomination.
Jennifer Lawrence received rave reviews for her performance at Cannes and is a legit contender. She failed to win best actress, but that’s not a death knell (Sebastian Stann failed to win best actor last year for The Apprentice). It’s a very strong top 5 at the moment, and I am concerned that the cold and somewhat mixed response to the film around Jlaw could bring her down in the end.
Best Supporting Actor
- Jeremy Strong (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
- Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
- Andrew Garfield (After the Hunt)
- Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
- Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Alternatives: Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked: For Good), Miles Caton (Sinners), Stephen Graham (Deliver Me From Nowhere)
Added: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Some baggage around Penn might prevent him from getting nominated, but if the performance is good enough, that will always be the triumphant decider. Early buzz and the trailer suggest he plays a compelling villain role, so I’m betting he takes the open fifth spot.
Dropped: Colman Domingo (Michael)
Michael has been pushed to 2026, so Domingo is out of this year’s race.
Best Supporting Actress
- Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
- Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt)
- Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
- Inga Ilbsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
- Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine)
Alternatives: Emily Watson (Hamnet), Angelina Lookingglass (The Rivals of Amziah King), Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man), Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly)
Added: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ilbsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Both Fanning and Lilleaas received rave reviews for their performances in Sentimental Value. Fanning has the edge for a nomination being the bigger name, but in a category that still appears very in flux, I’m going to bank on Sentimental Value taking off a serious best picture contender and can get both in.
Dropped: Emily Watson (Hamnet)
There is still very little information on what Watson’s role will be in the film. It could only be a scene or two, so for now, I am going to play conservative and take her out of the top 5.
Best Original Screenplay
- Sentimental Value — Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
- After the Hunt — Nora Garrett
- Marty Supreme — Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein
- Jay Kelly — Emily Mortimer, Noah Baumbach
- Sinners — Ryan Coogler
Alternatives: It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi), The Rivals of Amziah King (Andrew Patterson), Sorry Baby (Eva Victor), Ann Lee (Mona Fastvold, Brady Corbet), Rental Family (Hikari, Stephen Blahut)
Added: Sinners
Add it to the list of nominations Coogler will receive.
Dropped: The Entertainment System is Down
Ruben Östlund’s newest film has likely been delayed to 2026, so it is out of the predictions.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- One Battle After Another — Paul Thomas Anderson
- Hamnet — Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
- Bugonia — Will Tracy
- Frankenstein — Guillermo Del Toro
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery — Rian Johnson
Alternatives: Wicked: For Good (Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox), The Ballad of a Small Player (Rowan Joffe), Deliver Me From Nowhere (Scott Cooper), No Other Choice (Park Chan-Wook), The Life of Chuck (Mike Flanagan)
Added: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
I am skeptical about whether the Knives Out franchise can go three for three with screenplay nominations, but it appears to be a weak adapted screenplay field and Wake Up Dead Man will be a hit for Netflix (who are very good at the whole campaigning thing), so, for now, I have its in.
Dropped: The History of Sound,
The last and final drop for The History of Sound.
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